MILT THOMAS

James A. Baker III spoke to capacity crowds this past Saturday at the Emerson Center with an optimistic, but cautionary, talk about our country’s present and future. He was the final speaker in this season’s Celebrated Speaker series and by many accounts, the best.

Baker’s accomplishments and credentials are without peer. He managed five consecutive presidential campaigns between 1975 and 1992 and served under three U.S. presidents (Ford, Reagan, Bush 41). He held positions as chief of staff to President Reagan four years and secretary of the treasury and secretary of state, the last to hold that position during the Cold War.

His accomplishments have certainly earned him respect as an elder statesman and his talk Saturday reflected the knowledge and insight he gained over the years. He began by admonishing those who talk about America being in a state of decline. “In the 1980s, we were told that Japan Inc. was taking over the world, democracy was too weak to defeat communism and the European Union would eclipse us economically.”

Of course none of that happened, but there is again talk of decline. “The last decade has taken quite a toll, from the tragedy of 9-11, a financial collapse, followed by a protracted recession, a fiscal crisis that threatens our credit worthiness and polarized politics.”

That talk is compounded, says Baker, by two costly wars and the Libyan air war, plus almost daily news of China’s great economic strides. But Baker feels claims of our decline are, in his words, “Badly exaggerated.”

The threat of decline is always there, however, and the only way it can happen anytime in the foreseeable future is if we can’t find a way to “restrain our appetite for more and more spending and more and more debt.”

Baker said bluntly that we are broke, and if it wasn’t for the dollar being the world’s de facto reserve currency, “We would be Greece.”

He doesn’t see anything that bleak because of America’s unique qualities, including a track record of innovation, our entrepreneurial tradition and population growth fueled by immigration. “We are a creative people and respond well to challenges.”

Among our greatest strengths is the military. “We are unchallenged in our ability to project strength in the world and we have a far flung array of alliances to leverage power in both the Atlantic and Pacific.”

Another key strength is our free market democracy, says Baker, and the only country with a theoretical ability to challenge us is China. Their transformation in the last quarter century is unprecedented in world history. “When I went there in 1977, there were no cars in Bejing, one hotel and lots of bicycles with everyone wearing Mao jackets.”

But he says we need to keep their advances in perspective.  They lag militarily. For instance, we have 11 aircraft carrier groups patrolling all the world’s sea lanes, while they have one recently acquired aircraft carrier, a refurbished 1980s Russian ship. Diplomatically, they only recently emerged from isolation and do not have the treaty relationships we do. Economically, they cannot continue to grow at the ten percent rate of the past decade. They also have a developing housing bubble that could spell trouble.

He feels we have our differences with China – Taiwan, human rights, cybersecurity, etc. – but we also have areas where our interests merge.

Baker says we shouldn’t panic, but urges us to be watchful. And don’t make them into our enemy. “There is no better way to find an enemy than to go looking for one, and today some in my party are looking to create an enemy. We need to beware of strategic overreach and avoid wars of choice.”

Another major difference between our countries is how we are governed. “They lack the resilience that comes from ideology or the consent of the governed. I have no doubt that our constitution will still be here fifty years from now.”

On the domestic side, Baker cannot be any more emphatic about the need for overcoming the dysfunction in our government these days. “We need a grand bargain that has both revenue and expense reduction as well as tax reform.”

Baker feels that a grand bargain is within reach, but the impetus must come from the president as it did with Reagan and the first Bush. “The recent sequester only addressed the rate of growth, not a cut in spending.”

Ultimately, we need to do things that grow our economy, pro-growth policies, not taxes. Then we will have money to improve our infrastructure and close the every-widening gap between rich and poor.

Baker answered a number of questions written by audience members.  He was asked about John Kerry, the new secretary of state with whom he met last week. “He knows foreign relations, but he must also have the authority of the position. Up to now, the White House has made all the decisions.”

As to the nuclear threat posed by North Korea and Iran, Baker says, “The North Koreans are crazy, but hopefully not crazy enough to use nuclear weapons. Someone should tell them we have 1500 nuclear warheads and we can aim half of them at you. Iran is more of a threat because if they have a nuclear weapon, then all the other countries in the region will want one. North Korea is isolated in that regard.”

Regarding cyberattacks, China is doing it to steal intellectual properties. “We can’t freeze up their systems because then they could shut down our electric grids or worse. Four star Marine General Peter Pace, recently chairman of the Joint Chiefs had a great idea the other day. He said we should disable all China’s internet blocks, which we can do, so their people would have access. They would fear that the most.”

On other subjects, Baker felt Romney lost the election because the Republicans were outhustled by the Democrats. Our policy toward Cuba should not change until they do something about human rights. He doesn’t feel race has affected the way President Obama is being treated by the opposition and in fact, he is proud of our country for electing him. Baker doesn’t feel Israel will ever attack Iran on its own. Their prime minister came to Washington to get backing for that from George Bush and he was turned down, then tried Obama and was turned down again. He feels Congress should spend three weeks on the job and one week home, not in Washington every Tuesday and home every Thursday. What’s missing today is the social relationships that develop when everyone is in town over the weekend.

Baker felt we should not give foreign aid to any country that is not our friend, including Afghanistan and Pakistan. Egypt has been a close ally and continues to maintain a relationship with Israel. They need stability, whoever finally takes power. Afghanistan and Pakistan should be treated as one unit and include India. A multi-state conference on settling their issues should include Iran and China.

The last question posed to Baker was whether we will ever see a woman president. “Yes, I hope there is a woman, Republican president.”